\antti{Here one can drop do even at the first line according to do-calculus rule 2, i.e. $P(Y=0|do(R=r))=P(Y=0|R=r)$. However, do-calculus formulas should be computed by first learning a graphical model and then computing the marginals using the graphical model. This gives more accurate result. Michael's complicated formula essentially does this, including forcing $P(Y=0|T=0,X)=0$ (the model supports context-specific independence $Y \perp X | T=0$.)}
\antti{Here one can drop do even at the first line according to do-calculus rule 2, i.e. $P(Y=0|do(R=r))=P(Y=0|R=r)$. However, do-calculus formulas should be computed by first learning a graphical model and then computing the marginals using the graphical model. This gives more accurate result. Michael's complicated formula essentially does this, including forcing $P(Y=0|T=0,X)=0$ (the model supports context-specific independence $Y \perp X |T=0$.)}
Expanding the above derivation for model \score{\featuresValue} learned from the data
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@@ -217,20 +217,20 @@ The causal model for this scenario corresponds to that depicted in Figure \ref{f
For the analysis, we assigned 500 subjects to each of the 100 judges randomly.
Every judge's leniency rate $\leniency$ was sampled uniformly from a half-open interval $[0.1; 0.9)$.
Private features $\features$ were defined as i.i.d standard Gaussian random variables.
Next, probabilities for negative results $\outcome=0$ were modeled as Bernoulli distributed
random variables so that
Next, probabilities for negative results $\outcome=0$ were calculated as
and then the result variable $\outcome$ was sampled from Bernoulli distribution with parameter $1-\frac{1}{1+\exp\{-\featuresValue\}}$.
The decision variable $\decision$ was set to 0 if the probability $\prob{\outcome=0| \features=\featuresValue}$ resided in the top $(1-\leniencyValue)\cdot100\%$ of the subjects appointed for that judge.\antti{How was the final Y determined? I assume $Y=1$ if $T=0$, if $T=1$$Y$ was randomly sampled from $\prob{\outcome| \features=\featuresValue}$ above? Delete this comment when handled.}
The decision variable $\decision$ was set to 0 if the probability $\prob{\outcome=0| \features=\featuresValue}$ resided in the top $(1-\leniencyValue)\cdot100\%$ of the subjects appointed for that judge.
Results for estimating the causal quantity $\prob{\outcome=0 | \doop{\leniency=\leniencyValue}}$ with various levels of leniency $\leniencyValue$ under this model are presented in Figure \ref{fig:without_unobservables}.
\caption{$\prob{\outcome=0 | \doop{\leniency=\leniencyValue}}$ with varying levels of acceptance rate. Error bars denote standard error of the mean.}
\caption{$\prob{\outcome=0 | \doop{\leniency=\leniencyValue}}$ with varying levels of acceptance rate without unobservables. Error bars denote standard error of the mean.}