diff --git a/paper/sl.tex b/paper/sl.tex index 42be2104fc66a5c372e502c91a081c1260951859..502f1f091cdb1dd3e4fee9c26fabdf253d4363eb 100755 --- a/paper/sl.tex +++ b/paper/sl.tex @@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ Following the above assumptions, a judge with leniency \leniency = \leniencyValu F(\featuresValue_0) = \int { \indicator{\prob{\outcome = 0| \decision = 1, \features = \featuresValue} > \prob{\outcome = 0| \decision = 1, \features = \featuresValue_0}} d\prob{\featuresValue} } \end{equation} -which should be equal to +which can be written as \begin{equation} F(\featuresValue_0) = \int {\prob{\featuresValue} \indicator{\prob{\outcome = 0| \decision = 1, \features = \featuresValue} > \prob{\outcome = 0| \decision = 1, \features = \featuresValue_0}} d\featuresValue} @@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ which should be equal to \note[RL]{ Should the inequality be reversed? With some derivations \begin{equation} - F(\featuresValue_0) = \int {\prob{\featuresValue} \indicator{\score{\featuresValue} > \score{\featuresValue_0} } ~ d\featuresValue} + F(\featuresValue_0) = \int {\prob{\featuresValue} \indicator{\score{\featuresValue} < \score{\featuresValue_0} } ~ d\featuresValue} \end{equation} } @@ -168,7 +168,7 @@ We wish to calculate the probability of undesired outcome (\outcome = 0) at a fi & = \sum_\featuresValue \prob{\outcome = 0 | \decision = 1, \features = \featuresValue} \prob{\decision = 1 | \leniency = \leniencyValue, \features = \featuresValue} \prob{\features = \featuresValue} \end{align*} -\antti{Here one can drop do even at the first line according to do-calculus rule 2, i.e. $P(Y=0|do(R=r))=P(Y=0|R=r)$. However, do-calculus formulas should be computed by first learning a graphical model and then computing the marginals using the graphical model. This gives more accurate result. Michael's complicated formula essentially does this, including forcing $P(Y=0|T=0,X)=0$ (the model supports context-specific independence $Y \perp X |�T=0$.)} +\antti{Here one can drop do even at the first line according to do-calculus rule 2, i.e. $P(Y=0|do(R=r))=P(Y=0|R=r)$. However, do-calculus formulas should be computed by first learning a graphical model and then computing the marginals using the graphical model. This gives more accurate result. Michael's complicated formula essentially does this, including forcing $P(Y=0|T=0,X)=0$ (the model supports context-specific independence $Y \perp X | T=0$.)} Expanding the above derivation for model \score{\featuresValue} learned from the data \[ @@ -217,20 +217,20 @@ The causal model for this scenario corresponds to that depicted in Figure \ref{f For the analysis, we assigned 500 subjects to each of the 100 judges randomly. Every judge's leniency rate $\leniency$ was sampled uniformly from a half-open interval $[0.1; 0.9)$. Private features $\features$ were defined as i.i.d standard Gaussian random variables. -Next, probabilities for negative results $\outcome = 0$ were modeled as Bernoulli distributed -random variables so that +Next, probabilities for negative results $\outcome = 0$ were calculated as \[ \prob{\outcome = 0| \features = \featuresValue} = \dfrac{1}{1+\exp\{-\featuresValue\}}. \] +and then the result variable $\outcome$ was sampled from Bernoulli distribution with parameter $1-\frac{1}{1+\exp\{-\featuresValue\}}$. -The decision variable $\decision$ was set to 0 if the probability $\prob{\outcome = 0| \features = \featuresValue}$ resided in the top $(1-\leniencyValue)\cdot 100 \%$ of the subjects appointed for that judge. \antti{How was the final Y determined? I assume $Y=1$ if $T=0$, if $T=1$ $Y$ was randomly sampled from $\prob{\outcome| \features = \featuresValue}$ above? Delete this comment when handled.} +The decision variable $\decision$ was set to 0 if the probability $\prob{\outcome = 0| \features = \featuresValue}$ resided in the top $(1-\leniencyValue)\cdot 100 \%$ of the subjects appointed for that judge. Results for estimating the causal quantity $\prob{\outcome = 0 | \doop{\leniency = \leniencyValue}}$ with various levels of leniency $\leniencyValue$ under this model are presented in Figure \ref{fig:without_unobservables}. \begin{figure} \begin{center} \includegraphics[width=\columnwidth]{img/without_unobservables.png} \end{center} -\caption{$\prob{\outcome = 0 | \doop{\leniency = \leniencyValue}}$ with varying levels of acceptance rate. Error bars denote standard error of the mean.} +\caption{$\prob{\outcome = 0 | \doop{\leniency = \leniencyValue}}$ with varying levels of acceptance rate without unobservables. Error bars denote standard error of the mean.} \label{fig:without_unobservables} \end{figure}