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Commit c97186de authored by Antti Hyttinen's avatar Antti Hyttinen
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Abstract

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...@@ -102,18 +102,19 @@ Second, the past decision in the data may skew the data, and, in particular, any ...@@ -102,18 +102,19 @@ Second, the past decision in the data may skew the data, and, in particular, any
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For example, when a bank decides whether a customer should be granted a loan, it is desired to grant loans to customers who would honor its conditions, but not to ones who would violate them. For example, when a bank decides whether a customer should be granted a loan, it is desired to grant loans to customers who would honor its conditions, but not to ones who would violate them.
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However, we can directly evaluate only the decision to grant the loan, while we cannot observe whether customers who were not granted the loan would indeed violate its conditions. However, we can directly observe outcomes only for the decisions to grant the loan, while we cannot observe whether customers who were not granted the loan would indeed violate its conditions.
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%THIS IS NOT SKEW THIS IS MISSING DATA %THIS IS NOT SKEW THIS IS MISSING DATA
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Such bias appears in the decisions of both human and AI decision makers -- and should be properly taken into account for evaluation. Such difficulties appear in the recorded decisions of both human and AI decision makers -- and should be properly taken into account for evaluation.
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%Further complications arise since commonly not all features that the decisions are based on are observed. DISCUSS UNOBSERVABLES IN THE INTRO? %Further complications arise since commonly not all features that the decisions are based on are observed. DISCUSS UNOBSERVABLES IN THE INTRO?
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In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach towards this end. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach towards this end.
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We use a detailed causal model of the decision making process, taking into account also unobserved features. We use a proper causal model of the decision making process, taking into account also the unobserved features.
Based on this model, we evaluate counterfactual outcomes to correct any aforementioned biases. Based on this model, we compute counterfactual outcomes, which in turn allow us to produce accurate evaluations of decision maker policies.
%to correct any aforementioned biases.
% to infer unobserved outcomes. % to infer unobserved outcomes.
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Compared to previous methods for this setting, the approach estimates the quality of decisions more accurately and with lower variance. Compared to previous methods for this setting, the approach estimates the quality of decisions more accurately and with lower variance.
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