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Commit 25e28099 authored by Antti Hyttinen's avatar Antti Hyttinen
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More to imputation. Reference in setting.

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......@@ -52,7 +52,8 @@ We use the following causal model over this structure, building on what is used
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First, we assume that the
% the observed feature vectors \obsFeatures and
unobserved features \unobservable can be modeled as a one-dimensional risk factor~\cite{mccandless2007bayesian}, for example by using propensity scores~\cite{rosenbaum1983central,austin2011introduction}.
unobserved features \unobservable can be modeled as a one-dimensional risk factor~\cite{mccandless2007bayesian,rosenbaum1983central,austin2011introduction}.
%, for example by using propensity scores~\cite{}.
%
Moreover, we are also going to present our modeling approach for the case of a single observed feature \obsFeatures -- this is done only for simplicity of presentation, as it is straightforward to extend the model to the case of multiple features \obsFeatures, as we do in the experiments (Section~\ref{sec:experiments}).
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......@@ -77,7 +78,7 @@ Here \invlogit is the standard logistic function.
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% Since the decisions are ultimately based on expected behaviour,
We model the decisions in the data similarly according to a logistic regression over the features:
We model the decisions in the data similarly, since the decisions are ultimately based on expected behaviour, according to a logistic regression over the features:
\begin{equation}
\prob{\decision = 1~|~\judgeValue,\obsFeaturesValue, \unobservableValue} = \invlogit(\alpha_\judgeValue + \gamma_\obsFeatures \obsFeaturesValue + \gamma_\unobservable \unobservableValue
) \label{eq:judgemodel}
......@@ -123,7 +124,7 @@ For a fully defined model (with fixed parameters) the counterfactual expectatio
E_{\decision \leftarrow 1}(\outcome|\judgeValue,\decision=0,\obsFeaturesValue)
&= \int \prob{\outcome=1|\decision=1,\obsFeaturesValue,\unobservableValue} \prob{\unobservableValue|\judgeValue, \decision=0,\obsFeaturesValue} \diff{\unobservableValue} \label{eq:counterfactual_eq}
\end{align}
In essence, we determine the distribution of the unobserved features $\unobservable$ using the decision, observed features $\obsFeaturesValue$, and the leniency of the employed decision maker, and then determine the distribution of $\outcome$ conditional on all features, integrating over the unobserved features (see Appendix~\ref{sec:counterfactuals} for more details).
In essence, we determine the distribution of the unobserved features $\unobservable$ using the decision, observed features $\obsFeaturesValue$, and the leniency of the employed decision maker, and then determine the distribution of $\outcome$ conditional on all features, integrating over the unobserved features (see Appendix~\ref{sec:counterfactuals} for more details). Note that the decision maker model in Equation~\ref{eq:judgemodel} affects the distribution of the unobserved features $\prob{\unobservableValue|\judgeValue, \decision=0,\obsFeaturesValue}$.
Having obtained a posterior probability distribution for parameters \parameters we can estimate the counterfactual outcome value based on the data:
\begin{equation}
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......@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
%The setting we consider is described in terms of {\it two decision processes}.
%We consider a setting where a set of decision makers $\humanset=\{\human_\judgeValue\}$ make decisions for a set of cases.
%NO WE DO NOT CONSIDER THIS SETTING, THE SETTING IS THAT WE HAVE TO EVALUATE M BASED ON DATA
We consider data recorded from a decision making process with the following characteristics.
We consider data recorded from a decision making process with the following characteristics~\cite{lakkaraju2017selective}.
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Each case is decided by one decision maker and we use $\judge$ as an index to the decision maker the case is assigned.
%
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