@@ -52,7 +52,8 @@ We use the following causal model over this structure, building on what is used
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First, we assume that the
% the observed feature vectors \obsFeatures and
unobserved features \unobservable can be modeled as a one-dimensional risk factor~\cite{mccandless2007bayesian}, for example by using propensity scores~\cite{rosenbaum1983central,austin2011introduction}.
unobserved features \unobservable can be modeled as a one-dimensional risk factor~\cite{mccandless2007bayesian,rosenbaum1983central,austin2011introduction}.
%, for example by using propensity scores~\cite{}.
%
Moreover, we are also going to present our modeling approach for the case of a single observed feature \obsFeatures -- this is done only for simplicity of presentation, as it is straightforward to extend the model to the case of multiple features \obsFeatures, as we do in the experiments (Section~\ref{sec:experiments}).
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@@ -77,7 +78,7 @@ Here \invlogit is the standard logistic function.
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% Since the decisions are ultimately based on expected behaviour,
We model the decisions in the data similarly according to a logistic regression over the features:
We model the decisions in the data similarly, since the decisions are ultimately based on expected behaviour, according to a logistic regression over the features:
In essence, we determine the distribution of the unobserved features $\unobservable$ using the decision, observed features $\obsFeaturesValue$, and the leniency of the employed decision maker, and then determine the distribution of $\outcome$ conditional on all features, integrating over the unobserved features (see Appendix~\ref{sec:counterfactuals} for more details).
In essence, we determine the distribution of the unobserved features $\unobservable$ using the decision, observed features $\obsFeaturesValue$, and the leniency of the employed decision maker, and then determine the distribution of $\outcome$ conditional on all features, integrating over the unobserved features (see Appendix~\ref{sec:counterfactuals} for more details). Note that the decision maker model in Equation~\ref{eq:judgemodel} affects the distribution of the unobserved features $\prob{\unobservableValue|\judgeValue, \decision=0,\obsFeaturesValue}$.
Having obtained a posterior probability distribution for parameters \parameters we can estimate the counterfactual outcome value based on the data: